Zogby data

By request of DaveZ, here is some Zogby poll data - See how accomodating I can be :)
Great article on how the administration tried to spin a Zogby poll their way and gets corrected big time.

Here are some interesting highlights:

When asked if “democracy can work well in Iraq,� 51 percent said “no; it is a Western way of doing things and will not work here.�

And attitudes toward the US were not positive. When asked whether over the next five years, they felt that the “US would help or hurt Iraq,� 50 percent said that the US would hurt Iraq, while only 35.5 percent felt the US would help the country.

It is disturbing that the AEI and the vice president could get it so wrong. Their misuse of the polling numbers to make the point that they wanted to make, resembles the way critics have noted that the administration used “intelligence data� to make their case to justify the war.

The danger, of course, is that painting a rosy picture that doesn’t exist is a recipe for a failed policy. Wishing something to be can’t make it so. At some point, reality intervenes. It’s a hard lesson to learn, but it is dangerous to ignore its importance.

For the administration to continue to tell itself and the American people that “all is well,� only means that needed changes in policy will not be made.

Consider some of the other poll findings:

• Over 55 percent give a negative rating to “how the US military is dealing with Iraqi civilians.� Only 20 percent gave the US military a positive rating.

• By a margin of 57 percent to 38.5 percent, Iraqis indicate that they would support “Arab forces� providing security in their country.

• When asked how they would describe the attacks on the US military, 49 percent described them as “resistance operations.� Only 29 percent saw them as attacks by “Baath loyalists.�

• When asked whom they preferred to “provide security and restore order in their country,� only 6.5 percent said the US. Twenty-seven percent said the US and the UN together, 14.5 percent preferred only the UN. And the largest group, 45 percent, said they would prefer the “Iraqi military� to do the job alone.

There are important lessons in all of this. Lessons policy makers ought to heed if they are to help Iraq move forward. What the Iraqi people appear to be telling us is that they have hope for the future, but they want the help of their neighbors more than that of the US.

That may not be what Washington wants to hear, but it ought to listen nevertheless. Because if policy makers continue to bend the data to meet their desired policy, then this hole they are digging will only get deeper.

9 Comments

  1. Posted January 30, 2005 at 12:21 am | Permalink

    That was accomodating and fast for 12:20 AM.
    I will look at it.

  2. JB
    Posted January 30, 2005 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    And from Gallup:

    Only a third of the Iraqi people now believe that the American-led occupation of their country is doing more good than harm, and a solid majority support an immediate military pullout even though they fear that could put them in greater danger

    … while they acknowledge benefits from dumping Saddam a year ago, Iraqis no longer see the presence of the American-led military as a plus. Asked whether they view the U.S.-led coalition as “liberators” or “occupiers,” 71% of all respondents say “occupiers.”

    That figure reaches 81% if the separatist, pro-U.S. Kurdish minority in northern Iraq is not included. The negative characterization is just as high among the Shiite Muslims who were oppressed for decades by Saddam as it is among the Sunni Muslims who embraced him.

    Two-thirds say soldiers in the U.S.-led coalition make no attempt to keep ordinary Iraqis from being killed or wounded during exchanges of gunfire.

    58% say the soldiers conduct themselves badly or very badly.

    60% say the troops show disrespect for Iraqi people in searches of their homes, and 42% say U.S. forces have shown disrespect toward mosques.

    46% say the soldiers show a lack of respect for Iraqi women.

    Only 11% of Iraqis say coalition forces are trying hard to restore basic services such as electricity and clean drinking water.

  3. Posted January 30, 2005 at 12:34 am | Permalink

    From Zogby: If you want to ask them do they want an Islamic government established, by 2:1 margins they say no, including the Shiite population. If you ask how long they want Americans to stay, over 60 percent of the people polled said they want the US to stay for at least another year. So admittedly there are problems, especially in that area where Saddam Hussein was from, where people have benefited most from his regime and who’ve got the most to lose if we’re successful in our enterprise, and continuing attacks from terror. But to suggest somehow that that’s representative of the country at large or the Iraqi people are opposed to what we’ve done in Iraq or are actively and aggressively trying to undermine it, I just think that’s not true

    I have always stated that if they want us to leave we should leave.
    More want us to stay at least for a time more or less than a year, depending on how you look at it.
    It seems as though Zogby is saying that the sadam area is skewing the poll results as they used to get more because sadam was from that area.
    The above from Zogby says that they. by a 2 to 1 margin, will not be voting, even the Shittes, to have an Islamic republic.
    It will be interesting to see how it plays out I hope for the good of the people. I think the germans and japanese preferred not to have us there in ww2 until the society got back together.

  4. JB
    Posted January 30, 2005 at 12:37 am | Permalink

    And another Gallup poll:

    Question: “Do you, personally, now think of the coalition forces mostly as occupiers, or mostly as liberators?”

    Answers:

    • Mostly as occupiers: 71%
    • Mostly as liberators: 19%
    • Both equally: 8%
  5. JB
    Posted January 30, 2005 at 12:42 am | Permalink

    Dave, that whole “stay for at least a year” thing was one of the spin moves that Cheney got called on, because the question wasn’t whether they should leave at all, but rather a choice between six months, a year, or two years - there was no other option. Quote from Zogby article:

    When given the choice as to whether they “would like to see the American and British forces leave Iraq in six months, one year, or two years,� 31.5 percent of Iraqis say these forces should leave in six months; 34 percent say a year, and only 25 percent say two or more years.

    So while technically Cheney might say that “over 60 percent (actually it’s 59 percent) … want the US to stay at least another year,â€? an equally correct observation would be that 65.5 percent want the US and Britain to leave in one year or less.

  6. JB
    Posted January 30, 2005 at 12:43 am | Permalink

    P.S. - I’m done for tonight - I need some sleep

  7. Posted January 30, 2005 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    I accept the Zogby and Gallup poll as a reflection of what the Irag citizen is saying right now. Opinions change when circumstances change. Hopefully good will come to the Irags.

    Also the poll that is being taken today which we will see how it plays out.

  8. Posted January 30, 2005 at 11:10 am | Permalink

    Kuwait is a good example that we are not imperialist- we liberated it from a brutal enemy who tried to destroy the country. We left it they it was. We could have knocked out the monarchy but choose not to.

    If they do the same things as sadam yes it would be a good idea to liberate them from that. The UN can start the process as they did with irag in the early 90s.
    I think we both want some of the same things for the US and Irag, just looking at it from different angles. The irags seem almost ungovernable with all these strong violent groups competing for control- control not to extend freedom but to get control for themselves. I wonder if that is why such a rough dictator emerged. Like the new democracy in Russia some people are lost. They have freedom and it’s hard.
    I had to stop last night at 1237am.

  9. JB
    Posted January 30, 2005 at 5:38 pm | Permalink

    I know; I can’t beleive how many comments I made last night. I am burnt out on this subject for a while.

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